DRAFT
Eastern Upper Peninsula
Environmental Scan and Career Development Report Card
II. Environmental Scan, Part 1 - Our
Community
A. Demographics
From 1970 to 1998, the population of the Eastern U.P. has grown
by approximately 6800 people, or 14 percent.
Luce County has actually shown some decrease in population (2 percent),
but Mackinac and Chippewa have grown by 15 and 17 percent, respectively.
These population statistics include institutional and noninstitutional
“group quarters” figures, and it should be pointed out that the area’s large
prison facilities skew the totals. In
1998, the Department of Corrections reported that 5,484 prisoners were housed
in the Eastern U.P., with 937 in Luce County and 4,547 in Chippewa County. Other people falling into that category
include those residing in nursing homes, hospitals and college
dormitories. The total in 1998 was
6,738.
More recently, using gross figures, the area’s population
grew by 8.7 percent from 1990 to 1998; the state’s population grew by 5.6
percent during the same period. If you
factor out the group quarters population, the region’s population grew by 7.1
percent. The largest growth of the
three counties was experienced by Luce County (17.5 percent), but if the group
quarters population is excluded, the county only grew by 3.4 percent.
The only category which has shown a steady decline since
1990 has been the age zero-to-four population, which has decreased by 8
percent. The age 18 to 24 population
has remained constant at about 11 percent of the total population, compared to
9.4 percent statewide The birth rate in the E.U.P. is 11.5 per 1,000, compared
to 15 per 1,000 statewide. The age 65
and older category remains steady at 13.6 percent of the total population.
The racial profile of the Eastern U.P. is majority white
(83.3 percent) with Native Americans (10.9 percent) and blacks (5.3 percent)
comprising the largest minority groups.
Fifty-three (53) percent are males.
In 1990, the total labor force was 23,200. The disabled population aged 16 and older was 1,960 or 8.4
percent.
There have not been any noticeable changes in minority
populations over the last ten years, but the 2000 census will provide us with a
better assessment.
Table 1.
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Table
2.
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B. Business
and Economic Conditions
The general economic conditions have mirrored the
improvements that Michigan has experienced over the past few years. Unemployment rates have shown a steady decline,
although they are still more than twice the state’s average.
The workforce of the Eastern U.P. has expanded
substantially faster than statewide and national growth rates, however. Since 1990, our total employment has
increased by 25.4 percent, compared to 13.8 in Michigan and 10.7 in the United
States.
Still very reliant on tourism, the Eastern U.P.’s economy
is very unlike the balance of the state.
The largest employment sector is government, comprising 45.3 percent of
all jobs, more than tripling the statewide percentage of 14.6. Government employment includes the six state
correctional institutions, vast tribal enterprises, a state university and
local school districts, as well as other local, state and federal government
jobs. Manufacturing makes up 5 percent
of the area’s employment, compared to 21.4 percent statewide. Seven of the Eastern U.P.’s top ten private
employment industries are related to tourism.
Table 3.
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*Other: Transportation, Utilities, Communication, Wholesale Trade,
Finance, Insurance, Real Estate
class=Section3>
Our tourist businesses have worked hard over the years to
extend the season and create more year-round activities to draw visitors. The weather plays a critical role each year
in the industry. Hot summer weather
downstate is a plus, as people flock to our northern beaches to beat the
heat. When our summers are cool and
wet, fewer “no vacancy” signs appear.
Similarly, a temperate winter is not healthy for the snowmobiling and
skiing enthusiasts. Thus, many area
businesses thrive or wilt because of what they cannot control – the weather.
Interviews with key employers in the area indicate that
business expansions are being planned.
This includes manufacturing and health care providers, which will typically
offer higher wages than retail trade and services. Only the public schools have indicated that they expect no growth
or reductions due to lower enrollments, particularly in the elementary grades. Some smaller governmental agencies are also
expecting to downsize by being annexed to nearby districts, resulting in fewer
locally-based employees.
Per capita incomes have increased from 1987 to 1998 by an
average of 55 percent for the three counties, compared to the state’s increase
of 57 percent. Mackinac County had the
most significant change, going from $12,301 to $21,886, a 78% increase. Even in 1997, each of the three counties
lagged behind the state’s per capita income of $24,956. Chippewa County was 37 percent lower at
$15,591, while Luce was at $17,716.
Nineteen (19) percent of Mackinac County’s labor force is employed
outside the county, compared to 4.2 percent in Chippewa and 6.4 percent in
Luce.
Table 4.
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The unemployment rates in the Eastern U.P. have shown
steady declines. The average annual
rate was 13.8 percent in 1992, dropping to 8.5 percent in 1998. Although it was still more than twice the
state’s rate of 3.9 percent, it is a notable improvement. Chippewa and Luce County have relatively
stable rates throughout the year, with seasonal fluctuations impacting them
with higher rates during the winter months.
Mackinac County, however, exhibits extreme shifts in unemployment, going
from more than 20 percent during the winter months to less than 2 percent in
the height of the summer tourist season.
Table 5.
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Michigan’s welfare reform programs have definitely had an
impact on the size of the local labor force.
For example, in 1994 there were almost 400 public assistance cases in
Chippewa County without earned income; today there are less than 30. The total labor force of the Eastern U.P.
has increased by 4,725 from 1990 to 1998, a rise of 20.3 percent.
In the Upper Peninsula, the occupations with the largest
numeric growth between 1996 and 2006 are expected to be cashiers, retail
salespersons, correction officers, general managers and top executives,
amusement and recreation attendants, food preparation workers, waiters and
waitresses, home health aides, maintenance repairers, and general office
clerks. Most of these occupations
require minimal formal training; correction officers need 15 credits of
specific postsecondary credits, and some require computer literacy. The majority of these jobs are in the
service sector, demanding good interpersonal relations skills, organizational
skills and dependable work ethics.
class=Section4>
Table 6.
class=Section5>
Upper Peninsula Top Ten Private Industry
Employers: (Third Quarter 1998)
|
Industry |
Number of Employees |
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Eating and Drinking Places |
2,162 |
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Amusement and Recreation Services |
1,893 |
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Membership Organizations |
1,562 |
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Hotels and Other Lodging Places |
1,382 |
|
Food Stores |
785 |
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General Merchandise Stores |
586 |
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Miscellaneous Retail Trade Stores |
580 |
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Lumber and Wood Products |
571 |
|
Auto Dealers and Service Stations |
456 |
|
Health Services |
451 |
Of the U.P.’s fastest growing occupations for the same
period, medical and technology skills pervade. The occupations include numerical
control machine operators, physical therapists, systems analysts, personal/home
care aides, emergency medical technicians, amusement and recreation attendants,
medical assistants, medical and psychiatric social workers, engineers, and
preschool/kindergarten teachers.
Nationally, the highest percentage increases in employees
from 1998 to 2008 will be in computers (117 percent), health services (67
percent) and residential maintenance (57 percent).
Table 7.
class=Section6>
Upper Peninsula’s Fastest Growing Occupations 1996-2006
|
Occupations |
Employment Change |
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Number |
Percent |
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Numerical Control Machine Operators |
180 |
62.8 |
|
Physical Therapists |
60 |
57.1 |
|
Systems Analysts |
90 |
54.3 |
|
Personal/Home Care Aides |
155 |
51.7 |
|
Emergency Medical Technicians |
75 |
43.6 |
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Amusement & Recreation Attendants |
380 |
40.8 |
|
Medical Assistants |
65 |
37.4 |
|
Social Workers, Medical & Psychiatric |
105 |
35.7 |
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Engineer, Math, Natural Science Managers |
80 |
34.8 |
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Teachers, Preschool/Kindergarten |
90 |
33.0 |
Table 8.
Upper Peninsula Occupations with the Largest
Numeric Growth 1996-2006
|
Occupations |
Employment
Change |
|
|
Number |
Percent |
|
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Cashiers |
775 |
17.6 |
|
Salespersons, Retail |
630 |
14.7 |
|
Correction Officers |
495 |
24.1 |
|
General Managers &
Top Executives |
410 |
11.6 |
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Amusement &
Recreation Attendants |
380 |
40.8 |
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Food Preparation Workers |
345 |
17.7 |
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Waiters & Waitresses |
335 |
10.8 |
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Home Health Aides |
320 |
27.8 |
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Maintenance Repairers,
General Utility |
320 |
13.2 |
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General Office Clerks |
2150 |
7.0 |
Table 9.
Upper Peninsula High Growth, High Demand, High Wage
Occupations
class=Section7>
|
Occupation |
Growth
Rate |
Annual
Openings |
Wages |
|
Requiring
Associate’s Degree |
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Dental Hygienists |
21.2 |
10 |
$19.94 |
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Registered Nurses |
9.8 |
48 |
$20.09 |
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Respiratory
Therapists |
39.6 |
5 |
$16.27 |
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Medical Records
Technicians |
30.4 |
5 |
$10.03 |